Northern Huachuang (002371): Performance maintained high growth industry continued to surpass boom
Performance summary: The company achieved operating income in 2018 of 33.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 49 in ten years.
5%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 86 in ten years.
Net profit attributable to mothers is in line with expectations (three quarterly report on the expected performance index of 2.
800 million, an increase of 70% -120% each year).
Equipment revenue and its proportion increased in both directions in real terms, and marginal improvement in profitability was obvious.
1. From the perspective of revenue structure, the company’s electronic process equipment revenue in 2018 was 25%.
2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of +75.
68%, revenue accounted for 75.
85%, an increase of 11 a year.
29 carats; electronic component revenue 7.
880,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +3.
23%, electronic process equipment is the core driving force for a significant increase in performance.
2. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, at the end of 2018, the company’s inventory and advance funds were 30.
15 and 15.
65 trillion, an increase of 48 compared with the end of 17.
30% and 38.
50%, indicating that there are sufficient orders on hand and future performance is expected.
3. From the perspective of profitability, gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales in 2018 were 38 respectively.
38% and 8.
51%, increase by 1 each year.
79 points and 0.
98 points, deducting non-attribution net profit 0.
US $ 7.6 billion, a positive number for the first time in the past three years, shows that the company’s own profit has continued to increase.
The development of core equipment is progressing smoothly, and customer expansion is in line with expectations.
Semiconductor equipment has formed a supply capacity of 28 nanometer devices in the field of integrated circuits, and 14 nanometer technology devices have entered the customer process verification stage.
The company’s 12-inch 14nm process etcher, PVD, ALD and other integrated circuit manufacturing equipment have also accelerated the development of equipment at the same time, and have been purchased by mainstream companies in the industry.
Incorporating the company in 2019 to a large fund and other fixed increase of no more than 2.1 billion US dollars, actively promote the development of 5/7 nanometer key IC equipment and realize industrial applications, we believe that the company’s equipment market share and equipment ASP will be increased in both directions in the future.
IC, photovoltaic, LED, panel cater to good market potential, and the company’s semiconductor equipment will maintain a growth trend.
1. IC field: SEMI estimates that the investment in equipment in mainland China will reach 125 in 2019.
400 million US dollars, maintaining the world’s second share, will increase significantly to 170 in 2020.
6 billion dollars.
2. Photovoltaic field: The cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline + driven by emerging markets, vacuum equipment benefits from the growth of investment in the photovoltaic industry, and the share of monocrystalline silicon cells continues to increase, crystal furnaces cater to good market opportunities;Following the continuous introduction of new technology applications such as Micro LED and Mini LED, it brings new industrial investment opportunities.
4. Panel area: the decline in panel prices has expanded + the concentration of China’s panel capacity has increased + OLED penetration in consumer electronics has gradually increased, and the size of China’s flat panel display industry is expected to continue to expand.
In 2019, the company will face many favorable markets in the four major semiconductor tracks of Pan-Semiconductor, and semiconductor equipment will maintain a growth trend.
Profit forecast and rating.
It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
86 yuan, 1.
50 yuan, 2.
Considering that the company is the leader of the domestic semiconductor equipment industry and merged the high prosperity of the domestic semiconductor equipment industry, we maintain the “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the risk of depreciation and amortization affecting business performance, the risk of fund production project digestion, the risk that the fund investment project cannot meet the expected risk, the management risk brought by the company’s expansion, the risk of semiconductor equipment technology upgrade, and IC equipmentThe risk of gradual 北京养生会所 fluctuations in the industry.